Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
