A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
